Oil, hunger and rising conflicts

The challenges are more than the gas pump and grocery store

Oil and food have several direct points of economic contact. A dramatic increase in oil prices often impacts food security in poorer countries, leading to health and disease concerns. Food insecurity can also lead to geopolitical upheavals that can directly impact American policy. To be clear, this article is not an analysis of the war with Iran, but rather a look at some of its impacts.

Oil and fertilizers

Agriculture, both domestically and globally, utilizes synthetic fertilizers. Crop yields are directly tied to fertilizer use. Urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate are examples of fertilizers that are intricately tied to oil and gas, both in their production and transportation costs.

The production of these synthetic nutrients requires intense use of fossil fuels. Thus, when oil and gas prices spike, so do food prices. One-third of the global fertilizer trade transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The war with Iran is having a direct impact on fertilizer and food, and thus farmers and consumers.

In April 2026, the retail price of urea jumped 27%. As a result, some farmers in poorer regions of the world are using less fertilizer on their crops, which will translate to lower yields. The downstream effect of this will be significant.

Oil and food crises

Spikes in oil and gas prices are having a direct impact on the cost of fertilizer production and transportation. These impacts will be delayed, perhaps by 6 - 12 months, but are inevitable due to the convergence of the price increases and the planting season.

Although the United States’ consumer will be affected, the price of oil and fertilizers will have a more profound impact on poorer nations and regions. Why?

The data on inflation and hunger

Food inflation impacts everyone to some extent. The poorer the individual or family the greater the impact because of the percentage of one’s budget that is used to purchase food. In countries that experience severe poverty, food inflation is devastating, not only because the people have no budgetary leeway, but also because there are few if any safety nets.

In the United States approximately 13-14% of household spending is allocated for food. In low-income nations, it is much higher. For example, in Nigeria, the average household spends nearly 60% of its household spending on food. People in Kenya and Pakistan spend 40% of their household income on food. If a low-income household spends 50% of their budget on food, a 20% increase in food prices swallows an additional 10% of their annual income.

Historical comparison

The world experienced an oil crisis beginning in October 1973 as a result in the OPEC oil embargo. Oil prices jumped over 300% in 90 days, from 2.90 per barrel in October 1973 to 11.65 per barrel in January 1974. (2.90 in 1973 would be the equivalent of about 23.00 today). This surge in oil prices resulted in an 180% increase in fertilizer prices, while total agricultural production costs rose by 25%.

Harvests already facing pressure from droughts were impacted by these prices. For example, Ethiopia and the Sahel in Africa experienced a devastating famine from 1973-1975. The compounding challenges led to disaster in the poorest regions.

Farming, oil, and hunger in 2026

Prior to the war with Iran oil was selling at approximately 70.00 per barrel. Since the war began, its price has ranged from about 100.00 per barrel to 126.00 per barrel, the latter figure representing an 80% increase from its baseline.

Domestically, this surge has translated to a nearly 50% increase in gas prices at the pump. Globally, it has caused an 85% spike in urea prices (fertilizer impact). As of this writing, fertilizer prices have not recovered.

It would not be accurate to tie hunger and oil directly together in all situations. There are other factors that impact hunger, such as conflict and drought, as mentioned earlier. Nonetheless, in many nations, oil and fertilizer prices are direct drivers of hunger.

Ethiopia, which imports 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer, mostly from the Gulf, is at a crisis level of prices and shortages. Small-scale farmers are priced out of the market.

In Somalia, 6.5 million people are now at crisis-level food insecurity. This is a direct result of energy costs driving up the cost of transport, milling, and water.

In Vietnam and Thailand many rice farmers have delayed planting. They are 90% dependent on urea imports. They are expecting the cost of rice production to exceed sales revenue, which will have negative downstream impacts.

Irrigation and milling have been crippled in Myanmar due to a 160% spike in diesel prices. Myanmar is one of the most at-risk food systems in Southeast Asia.

The Philippines imports nearly 75% of its rice from Vietnam and Thailand. On top of its already 6% food inflation, the downstream effect could be significant.

Global hunger impacts the United States

Domestic inflation, effects on small farmers, and food insecurity are threats to families and our economic well-being. Global hunger and unrest also pose a risk, as these can spark domestic conflicts that have far-reaching implications.

I will continue this analysis in the next newsletter but will present a brief taste of how these events can unfold. The so-called “Arab Spring” in 2011 was partly triggered by high oil prices in 2010 (110.00 per barrel), and increases in food prices. This was a contributing catalyst. Drought in Russia and Russia’s ban on grain exports contributed to food insecurity and unaffordability.

Food prices spiked in 2011. In Egypt, bread prices increased by 37% and protestors chanted, “Bread, freedom, and social justice.” Hunger-driven unrest (on top of other factors) toppled the Mubarak regime in Egypt and triggered the Syrian civil war.

Vacuums demand to be filled. In Syria, ISIS seized territory, unrest and crackdowns grew. The United States entered this conflict in 2014.

Sources used for this article:

· UN FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), including their Food Price Index

· UN WFP (World Food Programme)

· The World Bank Food Security Update

· USDA Economic Research Service

· Federal Reserve History

· U.S. Department of Energy

J. Steven Bromwich founded 1690 Media. He is a criminal investigator, ethicist, and RN. He studied international conflict intervention at the Patterson School of Diplomacy at the University of Kentucky and has served in both overseas and domestic humanitarian relief missions.